Situation

This multinational healthcare client needed to strategize investments based on category growth across 7 APAC countries for the next 8 quarters. They used Nielsen Retail Audit data for 7 countries, but they needed better, more consistent quarterly forecasts.

Healthcare_Hero

Our global healthcare client needed better, more consistent quarterly forecasts for seven APAC countries.

To get that, they needed to ensure that their underlying methodology was consistent and statistically validated.


Action

We used an ensemble approach, with regression-based causality and time series.
We identified key macro-economic and consumer indicators that can drive a category, then created a regression-based model using those indicators and estimated their effectiveness. We computed time series forecasts using Holt’s Winter methodology, and created an Ensemble model using the outputs of both Regression and Time Series but providing adequate weightages to each.

Results

Now the forecasting tool that we created lets the user adjust the effectiveness and weightages for their own business conditions. They can compare actual and forecasted value to identify anomalies, if any, and they can compare forecasts and key drivers across countries to allocate their investments more wisely.