Situation

Our client sells premium coffee in more than 4,000 coffee shops in 40+ countries worldwide. In addition to franchises, the company sells its coffee via café vending machines in movie theatres, stores, workplaces, travel, and other venues.

Analytics powers 3-7 percents growth for coffee chain

We empowered the coffee shop brand with data-driven tools to support confident, strategic decision-making.

The company was pursuing a new market in South America and needed research to facilitate its location selection process. Data was also needed on sales and market share for target cities and postal codes, including an estimate of number of stores and specific areas in each location.

Action

We took a data-driven approach by integrating Google Location API data with macroeconomic indicators and retail potential metrics. To assess the industry landscape and identify potential customers, we analyzed a wide range of sources including Census data, retail transaction records, and geospatial insights from Google.

To estimate the size of the market opportunity, we combined traditional statistical clustering with advanced techniques like Random Forest and time series modeling to identify the main drivers of growth.

Filtering and segmentation techniques were applied to postal codes, using macroeconomic indicators to identify high-potential ZIP codes. This analysis produced a “Potential Index” that reflects purchasing power, consumption capacity, and behavioral patterns. Based on this index, we segmented the market into activation clusters, offering strategic insights to guide targeted decision-making.

We developed a multi-criterion location “Attractiveness Score” that evaluated shortlisted location clusters. This score was weighed against competitive benchmarks, including store density and ticket size, to craft a priority hierarchy of locations.

Results

  • Empowered the coffee shop brand with data-driven tools to support confident, strategic decision-making.
  • Identified high-potential market hotspots, prioritized locations, and established strategic goals for market entry and expansion through 2031.
  • Delivered actionable insights that informed the client’s long-term planning and investment strategies.
  • Uncovered top-performing ZIP codes to help maximize sales opportunities and optimize resource allocation.
  • Recognized as a finalist for the 2024 FE FuTech Awards in the category of “Best Data Analytics Solution.”
  • 3-7%

    Revenue share uplift forecasted
  • 1,200

    Priority zip codes identified
  • 600-800

    Coffee shops prioritized